Quote Originally Posted by Lifepower View Post
Well, the usage numbers tell otherwise: Usage share of different OSes.
There are some strange numbers I see there. Acording to Net Market Share there is decrease of usage of WIndows XP, Windows Vista and Windows 7 but increase in Windiows 8 and other versions of Windows. And here I wonder what are theese other versions of Windows. Don't tell me that pepole started instaling older Windowses like Windows 2000, Windows 98, etc.

Quote Originally Posted by Lifepower View Post
If you look into current trends and forecasts, number of Android and iOS units will greatly surpass Windows + Others. In other words, we will have more phones than desktop units.
We already have more mobile phones than desktops but since most of them are just plain simple mobile phones and not Smart Phones they werent compared with computers in the past. Therefore the reason for them quickly gaining market share. It would be nice to see comparison between the number of all mobile phones and computers and the trends of each.

Quote Originally Posted by Lifepower View Post
If what you say about average lifespan is true, then it is another minus for desktop development as the innovations/upgrades will be more focused on mobiles.
Why would that be minus?
Sure it seems that in mobiles there is much faster advancment but in reality most of the technologies currently present in mobiles are just existng technologies from desktop world being ported to mobiles. And it is the rate of how fast theese technologies are being ported to mobiles which actually creates mobiles lifespan so short.
Most notable technology used in SmartPhones is TouchScreen capability. Do you know that first Touch Screen was developed in 1965? So this is nothing new. The only reason why it gained so much popularity recently is the fact that production cost had became much much lower as they were in the past. I still remember when I was dreaming of having touch capability on my computer back in 1998 when addon for my monitor which would alow me touch capability costed almost as much as my whole computer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Touchscreen

The second most noticable technology in SmartPhones is Digital Camera. And this one isn't new. First digital camera was invented back in 1975 but become more popular in recent years due to image sensors becoming smaller and cheaper every year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_camera

Third most noticable technology in SmartPhones is GPS navigation which was developed in early 1940's and again become more popular when the production cots lowered considerably.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System

The fourth noticable technology in SmartPhones are motion sensors. When have they been first invented is hard to say as there are so many different types of them. But I must admit that Smartphones are first devices which masively make use of them. Before that they were only used for scientific purposes.

Multicore processors which are used in newest SmartPhones have been used in desktops for several years now. So nothing new here.

Infact if you take a look there isn't any technology in Smartphones for which you could say this is new and uniqe.
This means that all new technology advancments are still being developed in destop world. And until it is so desktop computers won't die out.

And if I go back to device Lifespan I can say that longer lifespan is actually better for us programers. Why? We all know that if you want to make some really good software it would take you athleast a few yeasr for that. So if device lifespan is shorter than that it means that before you will manage to develop such software the device for which you has been devloping the software for would already be obsoleete.
In other words this means that you will need to keep redeveloping your software to make sure it is compatible with latest versions of such devices. This would increase the overal development time and even development costs.
And this is by my opinion a great MINUS of mobile devices. The overal development is too fast for us developers to follow.